In the wake of the deadly and destructive civil conflicts so prominent in the 1990s, aca-
demics and practitioners have increasingly focused on predicting and preventing civil con-
flict, rather than responding to and recovering from it. Accordingly, there have been various
methodologies developed to identify societies in which violent conflict is likely to occur,
and significant research has been conducted into the root causes of civil conflict. That
analysis has focused on identifying and understanding such causal factors as economic
decline, longstanding grievances between groups, and the ethnic and religious make-up of
society. But the use of the media to promote violent conflict has too often been devoted
insufficient attention.

This analysis focuses on the role of media in vulnerable societies, which are defined as
societies highly susceptible to movement towards civil conflict and/or repressive rule. This
often describes societies in developing countries and countries in transition, almost always
those struggling to make the transition from authoritarian to democratic government. It
frequently describes multi-ethnic societies as well, which, over the past decade, have
proven more likely to fall victim to conflict than societies with greater ethnic homogene-
ity. Media can be manipulated in an effort to move a society toward conflict or toward non-
democratic rule. This analysis focuses specifically on the former, but recognizes that an
equally thorough analysis could focus on the latter.